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When Everyone Delayers at Once

Volkswagen gave a headhunter an unusual brief: find jobs, somewhere else, for 400 to 500 of its own managers. The headhunter turned it down. "I told them we cannot do it...we do not have 400 executive roles that need filling."

The FT reports that German carmakers are flooding the jobs market with managers as restructuring programs at Volkswagen, Porsche, and BMW all shed administrative, engineering, and managerial roles at the same time. Magnus Tessner, an automotive partner at the executive search firm IFP, told the paper that manufacturers are "squeezing out managers like mad," their exits cushioned by generous packages. BMW completed the set last week: around 8,000 jobs, about 5% of its workforce, through a voluntary program running from October to the end of 2027. Every major German automaker now has an active program to remove white-collar roles.

The set

Each program can be defended on its own. Together they may be liquidating the management market on which all of the companies depend.

  • BMW: admin. The buyout offers go to about 40,000 desk-based employees, nearly half of BMW's permanent German staff, targeting administration, development, and planning. Production is explicitly excluded. Expected savings: about €1 billion a year from 2028.
  • VW: two waves. An initial program cuts about 50,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 across the VW brand, Audi, and the software unit Cariad, in both manufacturing and back-office roles. The next wave targets another 50,000 in "indirect" areas—administration, product development, sales—after an internal analysis found VW's administrative costs run 30% above other manufacturers', "largely driven by the complexity of the group structure across all levels," in chief financial officer Arno Antlitz's words. The FT calls the full 100,000 unlikely, given union opposition.
  • Porsche: the top of the house. The newest tranche, 5,000 jobs that are primarily back-office, comes on top of 3,900 already agreed. Chief executive Michael Leiters says Porsche "experienced disproportionate growth in indirect areas, and also...where management positions were created," and is now "intervening and making disproportionate reductions": eliminating departments, merging business areas, and cutting its own management board from eight seats to seven.
  • Mercedes and the suppliers match. About 5,500 Mercedes employees have taken voluntary packages in a program aimed at office roles rather than plants. Bosch is cutting 13,000 positions in its mobility division, ZF 7,600 in powertrain, and Continental 3,000 in R&D.

Context

Codetermination makes plant closures and production cuts politically difficult, as works councils hold meaningful negotiating power, and existing agreements protect many manufacturing jobs. Some senior executives sit outside ordinary works-council representation, while many other managers are employed above the collectively bargained pay scale. That can make white-collar and management reductions a less resistant path, though not an entirely resistance-free one.

One side effect of that governance: German corporates are unusually public about how they're designed. BMW documents its structure and operating governance in a level of detail most American companies would treat as confidential. Codetermination may be one reason German companies make their operating structures unusually explicit; when structure must be negotiated, it must first be documented.

The backdrop is a shrinking industry. German vehicle production has fallen from six million a decade ago to around 4.2 million, the sector has lost about 51,500 jobs in two years, and unemployment among qualified engineers is up nearly 50% since 2022. The entry side of the pipeline is frozen too. Anja Robert, who has run the careers service at RWTH Aachen for twenty years, told AFP that even some of the best students now report writing 30 applications and hearing almost nothing back. "It's not the case anymore that you just get your application in with BMW and you get a job."

Each of these programs is probably justifiable delayering, reducing spans, layers, and coordination overhead. Collectively, they are something else. German automotive management behaves like a relatively closed labor market. Tenures are long and careers are homegrown; Oliver Zipse joined BMW as a trainee in 1991 and ran it for seven years, and when he stepped down this May, the job went to Milan Nedeljković, the production chief, another lifer, who has told workers that BMW will "reorganise management and merge organisational units." Managers circulate among the same five companies and their suppliers. When one company delayers, the ecosystem absorbs the people and keeps the knowledge in the sector. When every company delayers at once, the market those managers would flood into does not exist, which is why Volkswagen is asking headhunters to place its own people. The knowledge in those layers, the seven-year product cycles, the negotiation skill that codetermination itself demands, is sector-specific and likely hard to replace.

The visible costs will be shouldered to the employees and the local economies around these companies, which can be helped along by social plans and severance budgets. And the financial argument is solid: an industry that builds two-thirds of what it used to should have fewer managers, so each program is defensible to some extent. The FT notes that even after cutting the full 100,000, VW would still employ about 580,000 people; Toyota employs 390,000, Hyundai 335,000. The cost on nobody's spreadsheet is the shared bench, the pool of experienced people the whole industry hires from, which every company is drawing down at the same time.

Whether that's right-sizing or capability liquidation depends on what was in those layers: Coordination overhead, which deserved to go? or Capability that takes a career to build? Nobody is positioned to answer that at the sector level—each works council defends its plants, each board defends its margins, and the commons has no steward. The companies will find out which it was the next time they need experienced leaders in numbers. By then the people will be wherever the headhunters placed them.